Gallagher’s NBA Matchups: October 6

We got a series, and it gets even more interesting now that Bam Adebayo (neck, shoulder) has a chance to play. Before Game 3, he was planning to play, but Adebayo made it sound like it was the medical staff that kept him from playing. “I’m trying to get back as quickly as possible, but they’re just trying to make sure I’m safe and I’m ready to play,” Bam said on Monday. You can tell he really wants to play here.

Meanwhile, Goran Dragic (foot) admitted his chances to play are low, so he’s almost certainly out for today and likely the series.

Bam’s potential return will impact the offense and defense in a big way. On defense, the main question will be how much zone the Heat will play. Clearly, that didn’t work in Game 2 without Bam, and the Heat going to more man in Game 3 was a great strategic adjustment.

Also, if you missed it, we had a great pod on Monday to recap Game 3 and look ahead. Definitely check that out here.

 

Miami Heat vs. Los Angeles Lakers (-7), 9:00 pm ET
Team Totals: Heat 105.8, Lakers 112.8
Injury News: Goran Dragic (foot) is doubtful, Bam Adebayo (neck) is questionable, Gabe Vincent is questionable, Anthony Davis (heel contusion) is probable, LeBron James (groin) is probable, and Danny Green (finger) is probable.
Heat Expected Starters: Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
Lakers Expected Starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Dwight Howard
Heat Rotation Notes: Jimmy Butler played 37 of final 38, Kelly Olynyk almost played the final 17, Kendrick Nunn played just three minutes in the second half, Herro played 22 of last 24.5 minutes.
Lakers Rotation Notes: Anthony Davis foul trouble in the first quarter, J.R. Smith snuck in for some of Danny Green’s minutes, Markieff Morris subbed in earlier for AD, LeBron played 12 minutes in the fourth in back-to-back games for the first time (three 12-minute 4Qs prior to Game 2).

Spo Quotes: He said Jimmy “put his imprint” on every part of the game. When asked about Jimmy’s high minutes and how the Heat can keep him on the bench for a couple spots, he said, “We can’t afford that.” He added “we’re not trying to save him” and “we’re way past that.” Spo said Crowder has “the hardest challenge of his career right now” and he can’t guard AD on his own.

Vogel Quotes: On the 10 turnovers in the first quarter, he said it was a lack of execution and not so much about effort, crediting the Heat defense. On KCP and Danny G struggling, Vogel said to “stay the course” and “those guys will be fine.” On the foul trouble topic, Vogel said it was a “small factor” on the offensive rhythm. Vogel said the Lakers need to do a better job on Jimmy Butler, mentioning some issues with help defense. 

Jimmy Quotes: Jimmy said “LeBron got the best of me too many times.” He said the team is settling down, and he said going to more man “was a good call on coach’s part.” When asked about people jumping off the bandwagon, he said, “I don’t care.” Jimmy said Duncan needs to shoot more threes, because he knows how important he is. He also said he doesn’t do sales on Big Face Coffee.

 

Overall Notes

*The Lakers were just 17-of-31 in the paint in Game 3 (54.8%) while the Heat were 26-of-34 (76.5%). In the first two games, the Lakers had 32 makes per game in the paint while the Heat had 36.

*The Lakers were 10-of-26 on wide-open treys in Game 2 and the Heat were just 4-of-11 (Lakers were 12-of-28 in Game 2, Heat allowed playoff-low 10.7 in East playoffs).

 

Heat Notes

*Jimmy Butler had 26 potential assists, 24 drives and 23 points off those drives with three dimes — Andre Iguodala a distant second at six potential assists in Game 3. In Game 2, he had nine points and five dimes off 24 drives. He had a whopping 11.7 minutes of time of possession in Game 3, and in Game 2 he had 8.6 minutes, which crushes his previous average in the playoffs of 5.4 minutes. He was a perfect 6-of-6 on his contested shots and 8-of-14 on uncontested. He guarded LeBron more than anyone else and it’s arguably one of the best games in Finals history. After Game 2, Spo said Jimmy had to be aggressive, and not surprisingly Jimmy rose to the occasion. Even if Bam is back, Jimmy is going to have to go nuts.

*Tyler Herro didn’t have a great game again with his 6-of-18 shooting for a 17/3/2 line, but at least Miami used him a bit differently. He had eight catch-and-shoot shots (six threes) in Game 3, which doubles his combined output of just four in Game 1 and Game 2. After going 4-of-16 on pullup shots in the first two (1-of-10 in Game 1), he cut that down to just 0-of-3. Herro was just 4-of-12 on uncontested shots, so the poor shooting wasn’t necessarily a shot-quality issue. With Bam possibly back, that could help Herro get some better looks. Plus, the Spo quote on Jimmy and how the Heat almost have no choice to play their key guys big minutes should include Herro, as well. Much like how Jamal Murray was able to go around the Lakers’ length and use his lateral quickness, Herro should be in a pretty decent spot as an off-ball guy next to Jimmy.

*If Bam can go, you’d think he’s getting a full workload. He was playing through a shoulder issue since Game 4 in the Boston series, which was before he exploded in Game 6 with a 32/14/5 line. Although, the Lakers did a fantastic job on him in 21 minutes during Game 1. Bam did miss some easy shots, but overall they made it tougher on him with some bigger bodies against him and not giving him a clear path on rolls to the basket. Bam was just 1-of-6 on his uncontested shots in Game 1, so it wasn’t all on the Lakers. The Heat might need Bam’s defense more than his offense, but this certainly isn’t a plus matchup like it was in the Boston series.

*Duncan Robinson would be a low-key winner if Bam is back. The Heat love the DHO action with him and Bam, so that should be an offensive staple. As mentioned up top, Jimmy mentioned that he has to get Duncan involved more.

*We know Jae Crowder is going to get plenty of minutes as the main guy on AD. Crowder has been getting some good looks from deep with 4.0 wide-open attempts from deep per game (2.0 open, defender 4-6 feet away).

*Kelly Olynyk should have earned a role as Bam’s backup. Spo probably won’t be using him next to Bam, but they do have 26 minutes of overlap in the playoffs and 584 minutes in the regular season (716 minutes of Olynyk without Bam). He’s still a fantasy option, especially if Bam can’t get to 36 minutes. If that’s the case, Andre Iguodala‘s minutes could be capped slightly.

 

Lakers Notes

*LeBron James was quiet in Game 3 and credit to Jimmy Butler who was on LeBron for 59.5% of LeBron’s offensive time (per NBA.com). LeBron shot it fine in that time with 4-of-6 shots going in, but he wasn’t being used too much as a scorer. LeBron also had seven turnovers in that Jimmy matchup, and we can probably expect Jimmy to be on LeBron a whole bunch again even if Bam comes back. On the non-scoring side, LeBron had 16 potential assists in Game 3, which is a product of the Heat focusing on taking away twos more than threes. The Miami adjustments do make it tougher on LeBron to dominate inside, but he still has a favorable matchup.

*Anthony Davis had just a 19.0 usage rate for his lowest in the playoffs (23.1 in Game 5 of Houston series), and he had just three games below 20 in the regular season (Lakers are 1-3 when AD has a usage rate at 20 or lower). The Heat really took away the AD cuts to the basket, and of course they were much better at keeping him off the glass. The Lakers had admitted they were able to rebound better because of the zone creating easier paths to an O board, so AD’s matchup may not be quite as favorable. Still, he’s AD, and Vogel has talked about how he has to get him going.

*Kyle Kuzma was a beneficiary of AD not getting shots, making 6-of-13 for 19 points in Game 3. His 27.3 usage rate was his highest of the series and second highest in the playoffs. Kuzma’s role didn’t really change much as he continues to see minutes in the low 20s; he’s not rebounding well, he hasn’t played great D, and he’s not distributing the ball much. From a DFS perspective, if you did want to fade AD, maybe go with Kuz.

*The guards shouldn’t see too much of a change. Vogel has usually stuck to his guns with his first-half rotation, and he certainly wants Rajon Rondo out there when LeBron isn’t on the court. As mentioned in the last Matchups, KCP and Green playing poorly should give them a shorter leash late in games, which will help Alex Caruso.

Matchup Helps: Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Jae Crowder, Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Rajon Rondo
Matchup Hurts: Danny Green, Andre Iguodala, Kendrick Nunn