Jamal Murray played 44.2 minutes, but it was the 3.8 minutes he didn’t play that was the story. Somehow, the Nuggets were -18 in that time, which equates to -178.9 per 100 possessions. It was a mixed bag on lineups that struggled in that time, but it was Nikola Jokic, Michael Porter Jr. and Monte Morris out there for that time (Gary Harris three minutes, Torrey Craig two minutes).
Basically, we can probably expect Malone to run it back with his game plan because it worked for over 90% of the game. Plus, the Jokic/Morris/MPJ trio without Murray was +8 in 49 playoff minutes before Sunday.
And oh yeah, Anthony Davis is quite good.
Los Angeles Lakers (-6.5) vs. Denver Nuggets, 9:00 pm ET
Team Totals: Lakers 110, Nuggets 103.5
Injury News: LeBron James (groin) is probable as usual, Dion Waiters (groin) is doubtful, Will Barton is out, Vlatko Cancar is out.
Lakers Expected Starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee
Nuggets Expected Starters: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
Lakers Rotation Notes: McGee did start 3Q after a good defensive start in 1Q, swapped out some first-half Markieff Morris minutes for Alex Caruso minutes (Caruso played final 15 minutes in first half), Dwight Howard didn’t sub in until middle of 2Q, 15 minutes of AD at the five in each game of series (Morris only on court for six of those, Kuzma high man at 24).
Nuggets Rotation Notes: P.J. Dozier played the final 14 after not playing at all before that (Malone talked about it below), MPJ’s late minutes were cut down, Murray at 23 minutes in the second half.
Vogel Quotes: He was much happier with the first quarter (obviously), he said AD carried the Lakers when they struggled to score at times in Game 2. Vogel praised Rajon Rondo’s passing and ability to read defense as a nice piece to fit next to AD and LeBron. He said the Nuggets are impossible to guard, but the Lakers are doing a decent job of putting bodies on Jokic (was asked about Lakers’ smalls getting switched on Jokic).
Malone Quotes: He said he played P.J. Dozier late in the third because he was a bigger defender after Monte Morris rolled his ankle a bit. Malone said his team did a better job of taking away transition buckets and the second-half defense was “terrific” and AD “took the win away from us.” Overall, it sounds like his plan to win worked and things would be different if AD didn’t hit that shot.
Lakers Notes
*After Game 1, Malone said the Nuggets had to do something different with Anthony Davis, and that was to put a little more Jokic on him. Well, JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard were shouting “Thanksgiving, steak dinner, appetizers, filet mignon and potatoes, a glass of champagne” when Jokic was guarding AD (quote via Chris Haynes). In the two games, AD has absolutely torched Jokic, putting up 26 points on 71.9 TS% with no turnovers, per the matchup data. After lighting up Millsap all season, AD has actually struggled a bit against him at 16 points on 51.1 TS%. He’s too good.
*LeBron James was much more aggressive in Game 2 with his 30.0 usage rate after a 20.5 in Game 1, but he was absolutely brutal in the fourth quarter with his 15.5 TS%. LeBron has actually run real cold in the fourth quarter lately at just a 28.6 TS% over his last four fourths (32 minutes). The Nuggets have been pretty successful at making LeBron take jumpers with 11 in Game 2 after just five in Game 1, and he’s really cooled off there at just 40.6 eFG% on 16 jumpers (was hanging in the mid-50s coming in). Jerami Grant has been effective against him at 2-of-7 from the field with no treys (two free throws). The Nuggets cut down his transition scoring in Game 2 and kept him off the line, so it was a good formula to limit him. Plus, just six points on 10 drives in Game 2. He did also have really bad luck on passes at 19 potential assists for just four assists (17 for 12 in Game 1). He should be the second banana to AD, but that’s still good enough because it’s clearly a two-headed monster on O.
*Rajon Rondo continues to check in for LeBron, and he’s been pretty good without him. The Lakers have a +17.9 in minutes with Rondo and without LeBron, but Rondo can be productive both with LeBron at a 17/5/9 per-36 line over 98 minutes and without him at 8/7/13 per 36 over 78. Vogel clearly trusts him.
*As mentioned in the last Matchups, Vogel basically views Dwight Howard and JaVale McGee as one player. He called them “stars in their roles” and we saw those roles hold again in Game 2. Expect it again in Game 3.
*Alex Caruso has played well on D, keeping Jamal Murray to just two points, two assists and four turnovers in 22.9 partial possessions. Caruso and Rondo have similar roles as they usually sub in for a frontcourt guy, and eventually get subbed out for KCP and Danny Green, respectively. KCP has played really well throughout the playoffs, so Caruso’s role figures to stay in the upper 20s.
Nuggets Notes
*On the offensive side, Jokic was fantastic in several aspects, including scoring Denver’s last 11. He had assisted three treys and four shots at the rim for 21 points assisted. Jokic missed out on some good looks at 4-of-13 uncontested shots (5-of-7 contested). He also had a high pace for just the second game over 100 in the playoffs after two sub-92 pace games in his previous two. The Lakers are generally making it tough on him at just 41.2% of his makes coming off an assist (55.7 in Jazz series, 67.2% in Clippers series), and yet he’s still been very productive. It’s going to be tough on him basically every game, but he’s getting more than enough opportunity.
*We can probably expect huge minutes from Murray again. The Nuggets did use him off-ball a little more with three catch-and-shoot shots from just one in Game 1. Murray’s go-to shot, the pullup, has really been neutralized in this series at just a 37.5 eFG%. He’s looked a little tired at times on his Js, which makes sense given his mild injuries throughout the playoffs and his playoff-leading 621 minutes (Jokic 591, Jayson Tatum 563) and 314 FGA. KCP has been terrific on Murray with an 0-of-4 shooting line against him in a Lakers-high 28.6 partial possessions. Murray has proven he can score on bad shot quality, and only Pascal Siakam has a worse shot quality in the playoffs (per PBP Stats, top 30 in minutes qualify). Even in a tough matchup, he can still crush.
*Michael Porter Jr.’s role shrunk, which was kind of expected after garbage time helped him in Game 1. Prior to Game 2, Malone said he liked Porter’s shots in Game 1, but they just didn’t drop. Those four non-Murray minutes are probably going to stick out to Malone, so he’s probably looking at close to 20 minutes again.
Matchup Helps: Anthony Davis, LeBron James, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Alex Caruso
Matchup Hurts: Michael Porter Jr., JaVale McGee, Monte Morris, Markieff Morris
