This series is so good and it’s been such a chess match. You can just tell that Brad Stevens and Erik Spoelstra respect each other so much when they talk about game plans, and these teams had some extra time to prepare with three days off. Jaylen Brown had an interesting quote about the prep as a factor. “The game don’t start on Wednesday,” Brown said. “The game starts now. Getting ready and getting prepared for the next one is just as important.”
If you missed it, I did a solo pod on Tuesday with a lot of good stats that aren’t in here. Check that out!
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics (-3), 8:30 pm ET
Team Totals: Heat 103.5, Celtics 106.5
Injury News: Romeo Langford (wrist) is out, Chris Silva remains out, Gabe Vincent (knee) is questionable.
Heat Expected Starters: Goran Dragic, Duncan Robinson, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, Bam Adebayo
Celtics Expected Starters: Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, Daniel Theis
Heat Rotation Notes: Only 1.2 minutes of the Mocha Spo Lineup (Dragic, Herro, Jimmy, Jae, Bam), Herro played the final 18 minutes, Jimmy subbed out for the last possessions (Spo said it wasn’t an injury and he was just trying something on offense), four minutes of Kelly Olynyk with Bam (zero in first two).
Celtics Rotation Notes: Celtics used the Kemba, Smart, Jaylen, Tatum and Gordon Hayward lineup for seven minutes in Game 3 (four minutes in 4Q and three in 2Q; 18 minutes prior before that in regular season and playoffs), Theis only had 12.6 minutes with Hayward (Smart 21.1, Kemba 23.1, Tatum 23.5, Jaylen 25.4).
Stevens Quotes: He said he didn’t expect to play Gordon 31 minutes, but he went to him because of foul trouble for Smart and Theis. Stevens said Hayward asked to come out a couple times, but he looked good and called him a “stabilizing force” to the team. He was pleased with how his team would respond to pressure of being down 0-2. He said the Celtics still need to be better on Bam on pick-and-roll coverages, and he said “Marcus’ ball pressure on Dragic is something that we need to continue to look at.” Stevens said Dragic is playing the best he’s ever seen him play. Stevens said the Celtics made it a point to attack the paint.
Spo Quotes: He said the offense was skipping steps on getting good shots. When asked about the Celtics putting Kemba on Jae, he didn’t have much to say on specifics of what the counter is. He really talked about “force, physicality, detail, focus” a lot in his presser on Monday. Spo said Duncan Robinson has been better at defense when teams are targeting him. He said “great force off the dribble” from the Celtics caused some zone breakdowns. Just on the fun side, he called Bam an “anti AAU player” because he’s just wired differently.
Quick Jaylen Quote: When asked about the lineup of Kemba, Smart, Jaylen, Tatum and Hayward lineup, Jaylen said “I believe in that group.”
Quick Jimmy Quote: He said the Heat starting lineup has to be better, which likely means no bold changes out of the gate.
Overall Stats
*The Celtics were just 1-of-10 on wide-open treys, and the Heat were 5-of-17. On the series, the wide-open trey attempts sits at 9.7 for the Celtics and 13.0 for the Heat.
*Both the Celtics and Heat sit at 12.7 shots per game with 0-4 seconds left on the shot clock. Just awesome defense all around.
*The Celtics had 58 drives in Game 3, which is up from 46 per game in the first two (one OT frame, too). They also had 30 points off drives, up from 24 per game in the first two. They also really passed out of drives at 24 in Game 3 after just 15.5 in the first two.
Heat Notes
*As mentioned in the Stevens notes, we should see more Smart on Dragic. Per the matchup data, Dragic didn’t get any two-point shots against Smart with two shots, one assist and no turnovers in 14.9 partial possessions in Game 3 (just 1-of-5 in the series over 32 partial possessions on series). Dragic only made one uncontested shot on six attempts in Game 3, which is a big dip from the 5-of-11 and 6-of-11 in the first two games. Dragic was getting a stupid amount of uncontested looks throughout the playoffs, but the party might be over.
*The big question is what is the Miami adjustment. With the Celtics putting Kemba on Crowder and based on Crowder’s comments, he is going to be part of it. “We’ve got to make adjustments, and that’s what we’ve been doing,” Crowder said. “We’ve been practicing, watching film. We’ll continue to do so. But obviously it’ll be a different game plan, different approach moving forward.” If the Celtics are going to hide Kemba on Crowder because Crowder takes so many treys, it makes sense to get him involved more in on-ball action. That, of course, would be a new wrinkle. Crowder averages just 0.8 screen assists per game in the playoffs and just 0.6 roll-man possessions per game. Even just using Crowder to screen could open up off-ball action for Duncan Robinson on kick-out plays after the Celtics were cheating off him a bit.
*If Smart is going to be on Dragic more, that should open up additional opportunity for the other perimeter guys. After Dragic, Smart has been on Jimmy Butler, Herro and Duncan Robinson in order. Jimmy has been extremely quiet when Tatum is on him, taking just four shots for five points over 53.3 partial possessions. In previous matchups, Jimmy put up 29 points in just 40.2 partial possessions on Khris Middleton, and 22 points in 102.3 against T.J. Warren (good volume, inefficient scoring vs. Warren). Bam has been key to the offense, and Jimmy had mentioned that. “We put too much pressure on Bam to always be there, he can’t save us every single game,” Jimmy said. Maybe today’s the day we see Alpha Jimmy (miss you Three Alphas Bulls of Rajon Rondo, Jimmy, Dwyane Wade).
*As Jimmy mentioned and as you can tell by the 27/16/1 stat line, Bam was huge. He had 13 paint touches, seven post ups and 11 elbow touches in Game 3. The post-up boost was double what he averaged in the first two games and he was at just 3.9 per game in the first two rounds of the postseason. He had all of his 14 shots come in the paint. From a scheme standpoint, he had three PNR shots with Dragic as the handler, he had a few DHO actions with Jae and Duncan, he had some isolation action, and he was just in the right spot for little floaters in the lane. There’s just so many ways this man can beat defenses, and he’s been ultra-efficient that there’s no reason to get too far away from it.
Celtics Notes
*The Robyn’s Couch Lineup was awesome in seven minutes (Hayward for Theis). They had an 89.5 TS% in that time thanks to 10-of-11 shots coming either in the paint or on treys, they were assisted on five of eight makes, and they lucked out at the line at 9-of-9 for a 162.5 O rating. As Brown mentioned above, we’ll be looking at that lineup again, and we know Hayward will get to 30 minutes, assuming no foul trouble.
*Jaylen Brown was extremely aggressive and it reflected on the stat sheet with his 26/7/5 line in 43 minutes. He was the big drive guy with a team-high 19 drives in Game 3 with 10 passes out of drives, which is pretty close to matching his output there from the first two games (22 drives, nine passes). Jaylen was one of the best fastbreak guys of the postseason and was third in points prior to this series, but the Heat had kept him to just two points in fastbreak in the first two games. That also changed in Game 3 with six points there. Jaylen ripped up Duncan Robinson with 10 points in just 8.5 partial possessions in Game 3, and we know the Celtics are going to attack Duncan when they can. Additionally, he was on Duncan Robinson a whole lot in Game 3, which is another good thing. I had mentioned in the pod that not being as involved as a point-of-attack defender in 2019-20 may have helped him grow on offense and create some transition opportunities. It probably won’t be as easy for Brown to duplicate this, but the tweaked role is very encouraging.
*Kemba’s impact wasn’t too big on the stat sheet, and again he didn’t really drive the offense. Kemba had just five potential assists in Game 3 and he’s at 6.7 in the series. That’s way down from the 11.3 he had in the Raptors series (Smart also at 5.0 from 8.4). His upside isn’t as high in this series. The Celtics made it a point to get Tatum the rock with 67 frontcourt touches in Game 3 after 55.5 per game in the first two. Like Bam, he has so many ways to beat defenses, and he’s getting some pretty good looks overall as his off-ball game improves in this series.
*As great as Hayward can be, his impact on usage hasn’t really affected the other guys much. With Jaylen, Tatum and Kemba on the season, Tatum only gets a 2.0 usage boost without Hayward, Kemba is at 0.6, and Brown is actually lower at -0.5. Hayward’s arrival shouldn’t cap those guys’ upside, and it’ll obviously hurt Theis, Brad Wanamaker, Grant Williams and Enes Kanter.
Matchup Helps: Bam Adebayo, Jae Crowder, Duncan Robinson, Jaylen Brown, Gordon Hayward
Matchup Hurts: Daniel Theis, Goran Dragic (assuming he gets heavy Smart again)
