We got a series, and the Lakers have to be relieved that it’s only 2-1 after the Nuggets have dominated the vast majority of the last two games. After that -18 in the 3.8 minutes Jamal Murray sat out in Game 2, Malone pressed his luck again and got Murray to 44 minutes even when Monte Morris had one of his better games in the postseason at 14 points in 20 minutes. With the Nuggets carrying the momentum from a strategy standpoint, the ball is in the Lakers’ court. It’s time for some more Anthony Davis at the five.
Los Angeles Lakers (-6) vs. Denver Nuggets, 9:00 pm ET
Team Totals: Lakers 110.3, Nuggets 104.3
Injury News: Alex Caruso (wrist) is probable, Danny Green (finger) is probable, LeBron James (groin) is probable, Dion Waiters (groin) is doubtful, Will Barton and Vlatko Cancar remain out.
Lakers Expected Starters: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Danny Green, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, JaVale McGee (note: very good chance Dwight Howard starts over McGee, possibly even Kyle Kuzma)
Nuggets Expected Starters: Jamal Murray, Gary Harris, Jerami Grant, Paul Millsap, Nikola Jokic
Lakers Rotation Notes: No JaVale after first eight minutes with Dwight Howard starting the second half, Anthony Davis played the final 30 minutes, LeBron played the final 13, Kyle Kuzma almost played the final 15, Rondo almost final 15, Caruso almost final 14, no centers for the final 17 minutes.
Nuggets Rotation Notes: Six minutes of Grant at the five, Murray played the final 27, Millsap and Michael Porter Jr. without much overlap (six minutes in Game 3, zero in Game 2, two in Game 1), no more P.J. Dozier after 4Q minutes in Game 2, Monte Morris had 16 minutes of overlap with Murray.
Vogel Quotes: He wasn’t too concerned about the rebounding gap. He mentioned he liked how the closing guys played. He said the activity on defense helped his team play zone defense, and he said they talked about playing zone against the Nuggets because they are “so surgical offensively.” He said the Lakers settled on jumpers too much and played into their hands, but the Lakers are getting great looks every time they touch the paint. He said Rondo “was a huge spark for us, especially when we went zone,” said he’s an “activity communicator” and was a huge part of that late run.
Malone Quotes: He called Jamal Murray a complete player and credits him for being able to make plays even when getting trapped or having different coverages against him. He said the big difference in Jamal this year is consistency and confidence in him. He said he played Grant at the five because he liked Grant guarding AD, and there “was no reason to go away from it.”
The Lakers also presented a case to the NBA regarding LeBron James’ lack of free throws, and Vogel talked about that. “We’re dealing with the fouls through the proper channels with the league,” coach Frank Vogel said Wednesday after practice. “I think he’s gone to the basket very aggressively, and I’ll just leave it at that.” There’s not much else to it besides that, but it’s mostly just about LeBron only getting two free throws in Game 3 and 10 total in the series. Feel free to check out the L.A. Times story.
Lakers Notes
*AD at the five has been a good lineup for the Lakers in the playoffs, sitting at a +15.0 net rating over 274 minutes. In the Denver series, it’s a +11.2 in 52 minutes, and it’s been out there during some key runs. If AD does play more five, that’s definitely a great thing on the stat sheet based on how he’s fared throughout the playoffs and in the regular season. In the Denver series, he’s at a per-36 line of 40/4/2 on a 33.6 usage rate and an 80.5 TS%. Feed that man.
*Small sample, but LeBron’s stats with AD at the five aren’t eye-popping in the Denver series because of his 20.5 usage rate over 33 minutes. Still, he’s at a 24/6/9 line thanks to his 76.8 TS% in that time. In the first two series, LeBron was at a 28/14/9 per-36 line with AD at the five over 144 minutes, and in the regular season he was at 30/11/10 per-36 line over 443 minutes. LeBron’s usage rate has also increased in each game during this series and his pace numbers are still pretty good despite Denver playing so slow. LeBron also got a whopping 11 fastbreak points in Game 3, but again the Nuggets continue to allow him to take jumpers with 28 in the series at an inefficient 42.9 eFG%. After Vogel’s comments about getting aggressive, you’d have to assume that is LeBron taking a few too many jumpers, so we might see an ultra-aggressive LeBron in Game 4.
*LeBron also talked about how he liked how the Lakers played in the fourth on Tuesday. “We played some pretty good ball in the fourth quarter, but those first 36 minutes hurt us obviously,” he said. Based on all the comments, you’d think Rajon Rondo’s presence gets a boost, especially with the injuries. JaVale McGee and Dwight could be at risk of losing time.
*There are also some injuries that could impact Vogel’s decision on who closes out halves. Danny Green has a volar plate injury to his left ring finger, and Alex Caruso had an MRI on his sore wrist on Wednesday. Both are expected to play, but maybe those injuries affect how much leash they have. That could help Rondo and Kyle Kuzma.
*Just going back to AD again, the Lakers have a -32.4 net rating when he’s off the court in this series and a +12.6 with him. He has to play a ton. Dwight is also at +29.6 while JaVale is -17.7. Sure they’re up 2-1, but if AD doesn’t make that shot, Denver would have all the momentum after their adjustments. Again, Vogel has to do something.
Nuggets Notes
*The Nuggets basically live and die by Jamal Murray. In wins, he has a 68.0 TS% and a 28.3 usage rate, and in losses he has a 25.6 usage rate and a 55.9 TS%. Jamal Murray is just killer in the fourth, putting up a 75.5 TS% in his 154 fourth-quarter minutes in these playoffs, and he’s somehow at 78.1 eFG% on his pullups in the fourth. He also had his most aggressive game of the series with 19 drives and 12 points off those after averaging just 11 drives and six points in the first two games. Murray has really turned it up as a driver both on volume and efficiency, making 56.0% of shots off his 13.2 drives in the playoffs. That’s up from 9.7 and 46.7% in the regular season (volume skewed a bit by increase in playing time). It’s a winning piece of strategy for Denver. Murray was able to find plenty of uncontested shots in the Jazz series, and he really hit his stride with a whopping 15-of-17 shots uncontested against the Lakers. He also had just one catch-and-shoot shot, too (made a three, of course). Malone mentioned how great Murray is at passing, and Murray’s dimes led to six makes within six feet and three treys for 27 points off assists. He did have better luck on his dimes at 18 potential assists, which was way up from the 10.5 he had in the first two games. He hasn’t really been great earlier in this series, and part of that is because Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, making just 1-of-7 against him. Maybe Vogel goes to KCP more later, but he might want to go to the zone a bit more.
*Nikola Jokic had his best efficiency in scoring and rebounding for this series in Game 3, but saw his usage rate get cut. If Murray is crushing in wins on volume, it has to come from somewhere, and that’s been The Joker. In wins, he has a 27.6 usage rate and a 32.2 usage rate in losses. Part of the reason his efficiency went up was because 66.7% of his makes are coming off an assist (44.4, 37.5 in the first two). His line didn’t as much to cut down on the scoring overall. If we do think Jokic is going to see more AD at the five, that could be a good thing. Without the Lakers’ true centers on the court, Jokic has a per-36 line of 32/11/6 on a 35.2 usage rate and a 62.0 TS% in 38 minutes. AD and Big Honey could go blow for blow down low.
*The Grant at five lineup didn’t really work with a -9 in six minutes. Prior to Tuesday, Grant played without Jokic and Mason Plumlee for just three minutes in the playoffs, but it was at 120 minutes in the regular season (Paul Millsap only out there for 22 minutes, too). Monte Morris should get another shot at close to 20 minutes after his success in Game 3.
Matchup Helps: LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, Rajon Rondo, maybe Kentavious Caldwell Pope
Matchup Hurts: JaVale McGee, Danny Green, Paul Millsap
