It has been great seeing everyone have success in Discord over the first week of the season! (shout-out JB, and several others). Let’s keep that momentum going as we continue the season…and let’s also hope we get a smoother schedule than 13 games, two games, 11 games, and three games…
If you were here with us last season, you are familiar with the format that I like to employ — but if not, I find it most helpful to review winning lineups to illustrate certain winning concepts and provide additional context around them. Last week, we discussed the importance of slate evaluation, and the types of things we should be considering when doing so. This week, I want to discuss the differences between smaller slates and larger slates (in terms of the number of games to choose from), and how that changes our evaluation process.
To start, here’s a look at some winning lineups of the flagship Fadeaway contest on DraftKings (congrats to the winners!):
Monday, October 30, 2023 – 11-Game Main Slate
Monday’s 11-game slate was highlighted by several key injury spots and “obvious” game environments. Much of the attention was on the Brooklyn Nets, as Nicolas Claxton and Cameron Johnson missed this game, with big ownership numbers on Cam Thomas ($6,000), Ben Simmons ($6,400), Spencer Dinwiddie ($6,100), Royce O’Neale ($4,300) and Dorian Finney-Smith ($4,100) — and rightfully so. At their reasonable price tags with increased usage and minutes, coupled with the matchup against Charlotte, Nets became a staple across lineups. Miami and Dallas also had key injuries, with Bam Adebayo and Kyrie Irving set to miss — resulting in material ownership on Thomas Bryant ($4,000) and Luka Doncic ($12,000), respectively. Additionally, there were some favorable price tags on players in favorable spots that had recently been performing well — Isaiah Stewart ($5,200) and Jalen Johnson ($5,000) — so both saw significant ownership as well.
Looking at the teams above, several of these players were featured (Luka Doncic, Dorian Finney-Smith, and Cam Thomas), but many of them were not. You will also notice that each of the first- and second-place lineups featured four or five “points of differentiation” (as I like to call them/refer to them) — but neither lineup featured those same players.
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