Thorn: Biggest OL vs. DL Mismatches, Week 5

 

The goal of a real-life NFL defense is to prevent the other team from scoring points. When we select a defense to roster, we’re trying to score the most fantasy points. It’s a subtle shift in thinking, but an important one.

The optimal way to select a defense in DFS is to think in terms of big events, not points allowed. Just 2.3% of games last season ended in a shutout and only 9.7% ended with one team being held to six points or fewer. In other words, targeting the “points allowed” category is a fool’s errand.

The real fantasy points come from sacks, forced fumbles, interceptions, and defensive touchdowns. These events are by far most likely to happen when a quarterback is under pressure. The best possible outcome on a single play for our defense is a strip sack which results in a defensive touchdown, as we get one DraftKings point for the sack, two for the fumble recovery, and six for the touchdown.

With that in mind, below you’ll find the biggest mismatches between defensive and offensive lines for Week 5. The objective is to project QB pressure through film study, injuries, scheme, coaching, and talent.

 

Week 5 Bye Week: Browns, Seahawks, Bucs, and Chargers

 

DL Rankings – Week 5

1. Cowboys
2. 49ers
3. Browns
4. Eagles – DT Fletcher Cox was ruled out this week with a back injury.
5. Titans
6. Steelers – DT Cameron Heyward is on short-term injured reserve.
7. Jets
8. Chiefs
9. Commanders
10. Packers
11. Giants
12. Chargers
13. Patriots
14. Panthers
15. Dolphins
16. Colts – DT DeForest Buckner returned to practice on Thursday in limited fashion after missing Wednesday’s practice and last week’s game with a back injury. DE Kwity Paye missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday with a concussion.
17. Bills
18. Raiders
19. Lions
20. Falcons
21. Rams
22. Jaguars
23. Vikings
24. Bengals
25. Ravens
26. Texans
27. Saints
28. Cardinals
29. Bucs
30. Seahawks
31. Broncos
32. Bears

 

OL Rankings – Week 4

1. Eagles
2. Lions
3. Chargers
4. Cowboys – LT Tyron Smith is expected to return to game action this week after missing the last two weeks, which would mean the Cowboys’ original intended starting five would play their first game together of the season.
5. Chiefs
6. Browns – RT Jack Conklin is out for the year with a torn ACL.
7. Packers – LT David Bakhtiari was placed on injured reserve. LG Elgton Jenkins returned to practice after missing the last two games with an injury.
8. Ravens – LT Ronnie Stanley practiced both Wednesday and Thursday with it looking likely that he will make his return after missing the last three games with a knee injury.
9. 49ers
10. Saints – RG Cesar Ruiz returned to practice in full on Thursday after missing last week’s game with a concussion.
11. Colts – LT Bernhard Raimann missed last week’s game with a concussion and didn’t practice on Wednesday or Thursday.
12. Vikings – C Garrett Bradbury practiced Wednesday in a limited fashion after missing the last two games with a back injury.
13. Bills
14. Bucs
15. Texans – LT Laremy Tunsil and RT Tytus Howard are on track to return this week.
16. Patriots
17. Dolphins – LT Terron Armstead suffered a knee injury in his first game of the season last week and is out for the foreseeable future.
18. Falcons
19. Bengals
20. Jaguars
21. Broncos
22. Jets
23. Cardinals
24. Rams
25. Panthers
26. Raiders
27. Seahawks – RT Abraham Lucas was placed on short-term injured reserve and LT Charles Cross is likely out this week with a toe injury.
28. Titans – RT Nicolas Petit-Frere returned from suspension and practiced in full this week and LG Peter Skoronski returned in full after missing the last three games.
29. Commanders
30. Giants – LT Andrew Thomas and John Michael Schmitz missed practice on Wednesday and Thursday and are doubtful to play this week.
31. Bears – LT Braxton Jones was placed on short-term injured reserve after injuring his neck in Week 2. LG Teven Jenkins should make his season debut this week.
32. Steelers

 

Biggest Week 5 DL > OL Mismatches

1. Eagles DL (4th) > Rams OL (24th)
2. Jets DL (7th) > Broncos OL (21st)
3. Packers DL (10th) > Raiders OL (26th)
4. Dolphins DL (15th) > Giants OL (30th)

 

Biggest Week 5 OL > DL Mismatches

1. Eagles OL (1st) > Rams DL (21st)

 

DL > OL

 

1. Eagles DL > Rams OL

Key matchups: Edge rusher Josh Sweat vs. LT Joe Noteboom, DT Jalen Carter vs. OGs Steve Avila & Kevin Dotson

Notes: The Eagles’ DL ranks eighth in pass-rush win rate, fifth in pressure percentage, and third in QB hurry percentage. The Rams’ OL ranks 28th in pass-block win rate, 32nd in sacks per pass attempt given up, and 22nd in QB hits given up. LT Alaric Jackson missed last week’s game and Wednesday’s practice with an injury while his backup (and starting right guard) Joe Noteboom missed Wednesday’s practice.

The Eagles’ defensive front will be without Fletcher Cox in this game which will increase the workload on Jordan Davis and Milton Williams, who should be able to combine to replace at least half of what Cox brings as a rusher. That combo should play well alongside rookie Jalen Carter, who is off to a dominant start. Haason Reddick has been off to a solid start as a pass rusher this year, albeit with a lower sack number than we’re accustomed to from him. Reddick was playing with a cast on his thumb from a surgery near the end of August to start the season, which came off last week. His speed and quickness will be a problem for giant RT Rob Havenstein while whoever plays left tackle (starter Alaric Jackson, backup Joe Noteboom, or whoever the third-string option is) will have their hands full against Josh Sweat.

With a dynamic interior pass rusher in Carter and a deep, talented edge-rusher group in place, the Eagles have advantages in virtually all isolated matchups in this game. It will be up to the rest of the Philadelphia defense to play off of that pressure up front against a high-flying Rams offense with WR Cooper Kupp returning to the fold for them to have success as a unit.

 

2. Jets DL > Broncos OL