Betting into an extremely liquid market such as NFL sides and totals is a very difficult endeavor. Lines move to efficiency very quickly and can’t be beat at -110 by the overwhelming majority of bettors.
However, player props are extremely beatable. As hardcore fantasy players, we are actually putting more time and thought into player outlooks than the oddsmakers. And since the limits on these player props are typically low, a lot of books don’t mind leaving up some soft lines. It’s essentially advertising to get people into their book. Don’t use player props as a guide for your DFS or season-long selections. Instead, we should be seeking out soft player props to bet.
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The goal of this article isn’t to “tout” picks, it’s to help you develop your own process by showing you mine. You may not be able to get these lines at your book. The general idea is simple: Take a projection you’re confident in and compare it to the available line. After that, the key is to add in our knowledge of player usage to gain a bigger edge.
I made these bets at on Wednesday, August 5th.
2019 Record (all individual game player props): 50-36, $+963
* Won/lost dollar amount is based on betting to win $100 on each favored prop and risking $100 on each underdog prop.
1. Hunter Renfrow receiving yards
Line: 700.5 yards
Projection: 566.8 yards
Bet: Under (-110)
Notes: This is an egregious line that failed to put context around how Renfrow averaged 46.5 yards per game last season. After only having to battle Darren Waller for serious target competition last year, the Raiders added Henry Ruggs, Bryan Edwards and Lynn Bowden in the draft. Projecting Renfrow for 5.5 targets per game again simply is not realistic – and we see this often from player prop lines. The books’ default is just to take previous average (not even median which is what they should be doing) and set the line that way.
Futhermore, Raiders OC Greg Olson said on August 5th that Ruggs would primarily play in the slot. That’s obviously awful news for Renfrow, who doesn’t have the versatility to play outside.
2. Zach Ertz receiving yards
Line: 924.5 yards