Welcome to The Rundown: Week 11. Each week, we will be compiling some of our favorite and most actionable takes from the ETR team and organizing them on this page game by game. Please note that all betting information is sourced from DraftKings Sportsbook. If you’re betting sides and totals, always be sure to line shop first and utilize ETR’s various sportsbook bonus offers.
|LAST UPDATED (WEATHER)||Sun @ 1:00 PM||ET|
|LAST UPDATED (ODDS/TOTALS)||Sun @ 1:00 PM||ET|
|Kickoff||O/U||Game||Forecast||GPP (DK)||GPP (FD)|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||ATL||40.5||TB (+2.5) @ ATL||INDOORS||0.4||0.3|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||CHI||42.5||DET (-3) @ CHI||37 °F, Mostly Cloudy||-0.1||-0.5|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||CIN||43.5||IND (+2.5) @ CIN||42 °F, Chance Rain Showers||0.3||0.3|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||CLE||32.5||JAX (+3) @ CLE||43 °F, Likely Rain Showers||-0.8||-1.0|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||NO||37.5||CAR (+5) @ NO||INDOORS||-1.0||-1.0|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||NYJ||33.5||HOU (-3.5) @ NYJ||58 °F, Definite Rain Showers||-1.8||-1.3|
|Sun @ 1:00 PM||BAL||39.5||LAR (+7.5) @ BAL||62 °F, Definite Rain Showers||-0.6||-0.8|
|Sun @ 4:05 PM||LV||40.5||MIN (-3) @ LV||INDOORS||-0.1||-0.2|
|Sun @ 4:05 PM||SF||46.5||SEA (+11) @ SF||59 °F, Partly Cloudy||2.0||2.0|
|Sun @ 4:25 PM||KC||48.5||BUF (+1) @ KC||41 °F, Partly Cloudy||1.7||1.5|
|Sun @ 4:25 PM||LAC||43.5||DEN (+2.5) @ LAC||INDOORS||0.1||0.7|
|Sun @ 4:25 PM||LAC||43.5||DEN (+3) @ LAC||INDOORS||-0.1||2.3|
|Sun @ 8:20 PM||DAL||51.5||PHI (+3.5) @ DAL||INDOORS|
|Mon @ 8:15 PM||MIA||46.5||TEN (+13) @ MIA||71 °F, Slight Chance Rain Showers|
|Mon @ 8:15 PM||NYG||36.5||GB (-6.5) @ NYG|
Steelers at Browns, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)
- OL vs. DL: Brandon Thorn listed the Browns’ DL (5th) > the Steelers’ OL (27th) as the week’s second-biggest mismatch. The Browns’ DL ranks fourth in pass-rush win rate, fifth in pressure percentage, and first in QB knockdown percentage. DE Myles Garrett leads the NFL in sacks with 11 and is third in pressure percentage among rushers with 200 or more pass-rush snaps. The Steelers’ OL ranks 14th in pass-block win rate, 26th in pressure percentage given up, and 24th in QB hits given up.
- Cheap WRs: Gary Hartman listed George Pickens ($4,900 DK) in the Honorable Mentions section. Pickens is a boom/bust player, especially with Diontae Johnson back and dominating target share, but there is enough big-play ability and talent in Pickens’ arsenal that he can continue to be a tournament option for you, especially at these cheap prices.
- Buy Leone: Jerome Ford ($5,200 DK, 1.8 PPG underperformance) appears in this week’s model. Adam noted in his context write-up that Ford gets a major downgrade with Dorian Thompson-Robinson starting.
Silva’s Matchups Takes:
- “For the first time, the Steelers started Jaylen Warren over Najee Harris in Week 10’s win over Green Bay. They each wound up playing 33 offensive snaps, although Warren erupted for 110 yards and a touchdown on 17 touches…I’d take my chances on superior pass-game producer Warren if forced to choose between the two.”
- “George Pickens is a boom-bust WR3 option against a Browns secondary in danger of missing top CB Denzel Ward (neck) and FS Juan Thornhill (calf).”
- “Diontae Johnson should stay plugged into fantasy lineups as a role-secure WR3.”
- “The Steelers’ D/ST is an increasingly exciting play; in a Week 4 start versus Baltimore, Dorian Thompson-Robinson went 19-of-36 passing (53%) for a measly 121 yards (3.4 YPA), zero touchdowns, and three interceptions. He was sacked four times and fumbled once on 40 dropbacks. I’m also downgrading Amari Cooper and David Njoku.”
- “Jerome Ford stayed well ahead of Kareem Hunt for lead-back duties in Week 10’s comeback win over the Ravens, out-snapping Hunt 50 to 28 while out-touching him 18 to 10. I’m standing by Ford as an upside RB2 play”
Bears @ Lions, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)
- OL vs. DL: Brandon Thorn listed the Lions’ OL (2nd) > the Bears’ DL (29th) as the week’s biggest mismatch. The Bears have a couple of solid-to-good defensive ends in Yannick Ngakoue and Montez Sweat with a good run-defending defensive tackle in Andrew Billings, but they have virtually no legit pass-rushing threat inside and Ngakoue is a bit of a liability against the run, particularly when facing elite run blockers, which the Lions have.
- Buy Leone: DJ Moore ($5,600 DK, 2.6 PPG underperformance – sixth-highest among all WRs) appears in this week’s model. Adam noted in his context write-up that Moore gets an upgrade in ceiling this week with Justin Fields returning.
- DFS Top Plays: The ETR team listed both Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8,800 DK, $8,900 FD) and Cole Kmet ($4,100 DK, $5,600 FD) as top plays on both DraftKings (ARSB 3rd; Kmet 3rd) and FanDuel (ARSB 4th; Kmet 3rd).
Silva’s Matchups Takes:
- “I’m throwing up my hands trying to project the Bears’ Week 11 backfield with Fields healthy, D’Onta Foreman (ankle) limited, Khalil Herbert (shin/ankle) coming off an apparent setback, and rookie Roschon Johnson still involved. I’m passing on starting any Bears RBs here.”
- “The Lions have yielded the league’s ninth-most fantasy points to wideouts, cementing D.J. Moore as a confident WR2.”
- “Darnell Mooney has cleared 60 yards once over his last 14 NFL appearances. He’s a WR4/flex dart throw here.”
- “Jared Goff is poised for liftoff as the engineer of Detroit’s top-echelon offense.”
- “I’m valuing each of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs as surefire if low-end starters against a Bears defense conceding the NFL’s 12th-most fantasy points to running backs.”
- “Josh Reynolds remained Detroit’s No. 2 wideout after Week 9’s bye but is being pushed by 2022 first-round pick Jameson Williams and eventually will be by trade acquisition Donovan Peoples-Jones for snaps on the perimeter.”
- “Sam LaPorta enters Week 11 ranked No. 4 among tight ends in catches (47), No. 5 in yards (474), and No. 3 in touchdowns (4). The Bears have allowed the NFL’s eighth-most fantasy points to tight ends.”
Chargers @ Packers, 1:00 p.m. EST (return to top)
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